Friday 3 August 2007

Rant 70 / I Suck At Life So Much, Death Runs Away From Me!

School starts next week. The real thing, not the dry all-guys-only sort that I've been having the last few months. I foresee many problems, worries and much anxiety waiting for me in the near future.

The problems are already starting. I had forgotten that it's Friday today, until my bro came back this evening. I was planning to check in to my hostel room on Friday, pack up on Sat evening and stay there on Sunday night. But no, by the time I realized it is Friday today, it was already 5.45pm, and the hall office closes at 5.15pm.

How's that for a good start?

Found an interesting article on wikipedia today that'd make a good conversation starter:

You are to choose between 2 identical envelopes, and after choosing, you're to be given a chance to change your choice until you're satisfied. One envelope contains twice as much money as the other, and you are allowed to keep the money in the envelope you choose.


If you have read the previous rant, you should be thinking that it will probably be better to switch.


But the problem isn't in whether switching is a good move.

Let's put it this way: here's the average expected value of the other envelope, taking what you're holding to be $A. There is a 50% chance of there being $2A in the other envelope, and 50% chance of it having $0.5A.

0.5 X 2A + 0.5 X 0.5A = A + 0.25A = (5/4)A

So it will definitely be better to switch.

And after switching, wouldn't the logical step be switching to the first envelope again, since what you're holding is now the $A?

And wouldn't it be perfectly right to switch envelopes indefintely, or till your fingers grow numb, whichever occurs first?



So the real problem is: which step is the wrong step that causes this paradox?



Stop here and think a little before scrolling down. Spoils the fun if you don't.









The mistake lies in the calculation of the average expected value. These 2 values, 2A and 0.5A, are not constants and are from 2 different situations and should not be used in the same equation. A is smaller in the first situation and larger in the second.





It is possible to make things even harder by allowing the player to see the contents of the envelope of his choice before switching one last time.

Now that the value of A is a constant, what now?














Just finished Shin Megami Tensei (SHT): Devil Summoner. I'm now able to play Devil Mode, which is harder. The game was not exactly easy to beat, but the story was interesting enough to keep me going. There isn't any good incentive to get the secrets, so I didn't bother to get the most fantastic monster in the game.

It was an interesting experience to see all the monsters, some of them old, many of them new. This is unlike the last 3 games( Nocturne, Digital Devil Saga 1 and 2) in the series which many have criticized their overuse of the same models for most monsters. For example, Ganesha never changed from its blue unarmed elephant model in the last 3 games, but in this game, they use its Buddhist counterpart named Shouten, which is a mace-wielding beige elephant.

The one thing I dislike was the lack of emotions in the story compared to DDS 1 and 2. As always, the main protagonist is an unemotional mute, but in the DDS 1 and 2 the supporting characters are full of emotions that differ from each other ( one is a humanist, another is a merciless man full of fury, and another is the unfeeling logical type and etc). Over here, the only memorable emotion from the supporting casts is when they express their support for you.

Another thing is that the designers didn't explain everything about the story.

One question I still have is: which generation of Raido was the last boss?

Another question is: Why exactly did they send Rasputin to this age?


Overall, it was a fine game, good graphics and music, but its storyline makes it inferior stuff compared to the 2 DDS.

The ending is cliché too.






Now I'm finally back to Wild Arms 4. After 2 discouraging experiences using the last 2 faulty copies I bought, I have finally got my hands on a copy that's guaranteed to work. Woot!

The graphics are decent, considering that it isn't all that new. But after playing in real-time combat in Devil Summoner so intensively for the last few weeks, the turn-based combat here feels rather slow. And puzzle! The Wild Arms series always include puzzles, unlike the SHT series where everything is straight forward. At least the combat comes at a more relaxed pace, unlike in SHT where there's combat every 5 steps or so.

I don't see any way for me to finish this game before school starts, and after school starts I will need to remove my interest for gaming. It is probable that I will never finish this game, though I wish otherwise.

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